Background:

In January 2024, the Finnish Immigration Service (FIS) launched a two-year lasting project ENNACOI (Foresight Country Information) to enhance the methods of the FIS’ Country Information Service. The goal is to produce information relevant for predicting and analysing future migration trends and developments on the basis of the information needs identified in Finland’s national forecasting process. Overall, this project aims to establish a methodology for creating foresight-oriented information products for both public and official use.

Within this context, Finland requested EMN Member and Observer Countries to answer several questions related to practices and methods in this field.

Respondents:

21 EMN Member and Observer Countries answered this query (including BE).

Findings:

A preliminary analysis of the results of the ad hoc query shows inter alia that:

• The majority of the responding countries (AT, BE, BG, CZ, EE, FI, GR, HR, IT, NO, PL, RS, SE, SI, SK) indicated that they make use of methods or models for predicting or analysing future migration trends and developments. More specifically, AT, CZ, EE, FI, GR, PL, RS, SI, SK adopt Frontex’s CIRAM (Common Integrated Risk Analysis Model) 2.1 or 3.0 to analyse migration trends and risks in the future and for scenario building. Countries also use their own or other models or methods. These include building scenarios for asylum influx (BE, NO, SE), foresight (AT, FI), and probabilistic, qualitative, and/or quantitative forecasting (AT, FI, GR, IT, PL, RS, SE, SI) through the application of models such as the Castro-Rogers Migration Model (IT) or prognosis models of the Migration Agency (SE).
   
• The data sources used concern historical (BE, BG, PL), administrative (BG, EE, FI, IT, PL), and open-source or media (AT, EE, GR, HR, PL, RS, SI), expert opinions, discussions or interviews (BE, EE, FI, PL), and reports and/or databases from public institutions and NGOs (BE, BG, HR, PL, SI, SK). In SE, previous assessments and back-data on the number of incoming applications are also taken into account.
   
• The time horizon of migration predictions varies from one to three months (GR), going to one to two (EE, NO) to six years (FI), up to ten (BG, PL) and fifty years at least (IT). BE, CZ, FI, HR, and RS work with a time horizon of twelve months.
   
• In AT, BG, CZ, EE, GR, HR, PL, RS, and SI, border control management and/or police departments or units conduct the analyses for these models. In AT, BE, FI, NO and SE, the government entities for asylum and migration (often within the Federal Ministry of Interior) are (also) in charge of the analysis. Additionally, analyses are conducted by national statistics institutes (IT, PL).
   
• The results of the analyses are used by Ministries of the Interior or Internal Affairs (AT, BG, CZ, HR, PL, RS), border control and police units (BG, GR, HR), Ministries or government agencies for immigration and asylum (BE, GR, PL, SE), and Ministries of Economy and Finance, Labour, Health and Education (IT). In addition, research institutes and/or universities (AT, IT, PL), media (SE) and industry (AT) deploy these analyses.
   
• AT, BG, CZ, EE, GR, HR, PL and RS stated that the results of the analyses are not publicly available, but only for internal use by involved institutions. In BE, FI, IT, NO, SE, SI the results are published on the website of the competent government agencies and/or through press releases.

For further information, please read the compilation of answers above.