Minerva think tank highlights risks of restrictive migration policies for Belgium’s economy and public finances
On 9 February 2026, the Minerva think tank published a report assessing the economic and demographic impacts of current asylum and migration policies in Belgium, while also considering comparative cases in other European countries. It examines how policy choices in this field interact with labour market needs, demographic trends and public finances, and explores potential medium- to long-term effects associated with different policy approaches. The publication contributes to the broader policy debate by presenting available data and modelling selected scenarios.
The report situates its analysis within the broader European policy context, marked in recent years by efforts to tighten asylum and migration frameworks, while placing particular focus on Belgium. It notes that these policy developments have taken place alongside structural labour shortages and accelerating demographic ageing across many Member States. Against this backdrop, the study explores the relationship between restrictive migration objectives and longer-term economic and demographic dynamics, examining how these tensions manifest in the Belgian context. It draws on existing statistical data, labour market projections and demographic trends to frame this interaction.
The report identifies five key findings. First, migration is demographically necessary: without sufficient net immigration, the working-age population is set to decline, and the financing of pensions, healthcare and social protection will come under pressure. Second, migrants contribute positively to the economy and public finances, particularly when integrated into the labour market. Third, the study highlights a structural tension, referred to as the “(il)liberal migration paradox,” between political objectives to reduce migration and the economic and demographic need for labour. Fourth, promises of a strict and restrictive migration policy have not led to lower migration in the countries studied (the United Kingdom, Italy, and Denmark), and in some cases have even coincided with higher inflows. Fifth, Spain is presented as an exception, where pragmatic policies focused on regularisation and rapid labour market integration combine economic growth with social inclusion.
The report concludes that the current drive towards increasingly restrictive asylum and migration policies is fundamentally at odds with the demographic, economic and fiscal realities of ageing welfare states, and that restrictive policies risk undermining the very prosperity and social protection they aim to preserve. It also emphasises that the economic and fiscal impact of migration depends on the speed and effectiveness of labour market integration, and that policies limiting access to work or imposing temporary statuses are counterproductive.
For further details, please read (in Dutch) the report attached below.